Nothing more starkly divides Americans than guns, overall the assault weapon ban won’t pass. Handing gun owners their wet dream (second only to red dawn), does nothing but energize the militant right and convert others to join them.
Theoretically, if the Senate passed an assault weapon ban it wouldn’t change the situation on the ground very much. The United States is based on federalism. Each state has their own sovereignty basically and even counties are quite powerful compared to centralization of laws in countries like France. So local laws are a reality in the US.
For example, the abortion issue. Republicans struck down a federal law, the minor changes it brought were mainly symbolic. If assault weapons are banned, some of the Democrat states would maybe attempt to enforce the ban, but it wouldn’t be much of a change compared to the current situation. Democrat states would be unable to stop 2A sanctuary counties within them as well. While Republicans are notorious for never fighting back, local police do. Local sheriffs arrest federal police whenever they try to grab guns in these areas.
Remember that sheriffs and local police turn a blind eye to weapon violations if that’s the only thing that has happened. “Alright son, just keep it safe” and they won’t bother you. So, if an assault weapon ban happened and people were still taking their guns to the range local police would not step in. This already happens in California where local law enforcement turns a blind eye to “assault weapons” where they routinely drop weapon charges.
And the manufacturing base of them is in red states anyways. We’re already seeing companies cut off blue states from the supply, including law enforcement and state agents.